Obama Wins (shocker) but where does he go from here?

Its been a while for me putting pen to paper, in fact it will be seven months & days days from now between posts and a lot has changed since. Nothing has changed in the grand scheme of things thou, not with having re-elected President Obama. Had it been Mitt Romney would it have been much different? I don't think so, but it couldn't have gotten much worse either. For full disclosure I'm not an anti-Obama guy. I think hes grossly under-qualified for the position and has gotten in way over his head. With that said, as i have stated many times on this blog, i think too much disinformation has been put out in efforts to soil the President and many of them are gross exaggerations - like this obsession with him raising taxes & running up the debt at a record pace.

Plain and simple, Obama has not raised taxes across the board like most think he has, in fact hes been a tax cutter (if you dont count the tax on tattoos parlors and tanning bed companies). Now with that now being said, that will dramatically change over the next few years as the Bush Tax cuts are set to expire and he has stated taxes will go up for the wealthy. Then factor in Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obama Care) and you are now talking about sweeping tax hikes, but to this point the narrative of him being a greedy socialist tax whore has been blatantly false.

The Debt? Hes run up the credit card at an alarming rate, but not much more than his predecessor George W Bush did in his eight years before Obama's election. When President Bush took office the National Debt stood at 5.7 Trillion, when he left it was 10.6. So when Obama took office he entered with the 10.6 Trillion, as of this morning it stands at 16.2 (bear in mind that 3/4 of Obama's first year of office was under a GWB budget). So nominally, Obama will easily be the biggest debtor in our nations history but he will will probably "only" double the debt, just as his predecessor did before him.

So, where does that leave us? I think we are in for another recession. The President will have the veto pen and i think if everything is left in place, economically its going to be a long and harsh recovery of virtually no growth. Jobs will not be plentiful and incomes will continue to be slashed through a combination of: lack of work, inflation and debt at every level, public and privately. If his broaden agenda is brought into focus and realized things will be worse. Cataclysmic economic meltdown filled with bread lines and riots in the streets? No. But stagflation circa mid 1970's? Yes.

Hopefully, the administration understands the situation we are in and does its best to curb the rising tides that are on the horizon. If not, Obama's legacy will be nothing short of a an economic dead zone. A presidency that inherited an economic crisis that was undoubtedly dire but after a stabilization, this was a regime that failed to turn the momentum around and instead kicked out its arms every-time it tried to get up off the floor.  An 8 year window of high unemployment, economic decline via the continued assault on the dollar through currency manipulation and reckless spending. "Hope" and "Change" were the buzz words of '08 and they were empty words based on the results of the last four years. Lets hope for some change in the next four. 

Pimp My Crony Capitalist Ride: Starring Prez Obama

There is something about a true free market that is romantic and optimistic, so much so that it arouses the deepest emotions in all of us if we imagine the boundless possibilities. The simplicity and beauty of a true free market is that way because it’s derived from nature itself. Its self correcting, rewards hard work and due diligence but also poetically enough; punishes and discards the losers and Mal-investment. You could call it Darwinian, and it can be cruel but more than anything it you have to call it fair.

Now comes what we have – crony capitalism. American capitalism today and for over a century has been anything but free. The system we have in place today is corrupt and has been completely hijacked by the collusion between big business and legislators on the take. I’m not talking about the overt sleazy ones either; im talking about almost every single one of them outside of maybe a Ron Paul. Capitalism today is being destroyed by itself. We are eating our own. Corporations are collectively smarter than politicians. Politicians also need money. Corporations need favorable legislation and thus what we have today is a shell of a free market.

The overt transparency of fraud became evident in the Obama administrations predecessor (the Bush Administration) who used the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and disasters like Katrina to facilitate no bid contracts and cost plus contracts with huge corporations like Bechtel and Dick Cheney’s former company Halliburton (do i really need a cite or link here). There was also Treasury's Hank Paulson (former Goldman CEO) giving his former cohorts on Wall Street inside information as to governments plans weeks and months before things happened during the financial crisis of 2008. Not nearly as talked about but equally suspect was the 1 Trillion dollar (and counting) Medicare prescription-drug benefit that facilitated a giant subsidy to thepharmaceutical industry. Maybe it’s the rise of the information age, maybe its our system finally coming undone; either way this type of corruption is something I have never seen or read about since the days of the industrial revolution.  

 

This current administration is no stranger to this corruption either (just look at his past contributors). In fact, what we are seeing under this administration is unprecedented on the subject of crony capitalism and that's saying alot considering Bush's track record. . 

One of the most notorious cases has been the solar company out of California, Solyndra. This was a company that received a 535 Million dollar loan from the federalgovernment in 2009 - spent 1 Million dollars in lobbying in 2010 – then went bankrupt in 2011. This put US taxpayer’s on the hook for the 535 Million dollar loan. Solyndra was also influential in the Presidents (who toured Solyndra in 2010 and tabbed it a success) election as its board contributed large sums of money from their own accounts. We also learned via the Tribune Washington Bureau that the Department of Energy employee who helped monitor the Solyndra loan guarantee was one of Obama's top fundraisers.

Solyndra however doesn’t touch the GM scandal. As I pointed out before, the US buying a stake in a company and having it competing with other company’s in the same industry who is not back by the federal government is not supposed to happen. Talk about an UN-leveled playing field? But it did.

GM saw what the Prius was doing a decade ago and for years wanted to get into the hybrid market but never could gain traction. So it concentrates on the next big thing, the electric car. This drive towards the electric car breeds the conception of the Chevy Volt. In September in 2008, the Volt was unveiled. By this time, GM is failing and on its death bed. Nine months later enters Obama and his blank check.   

So here the President sits with a gigantic stake in GM. It’s actually us, the taxpayer with the giant stake, but for the sake of the argument, it is Mr President since he has our check book…we just pay the bills (but only some as we have annual trillion dollar deficits). This could go on forever.

Let’s reset. It’s 2009 and with the US tax payers on the hook for GM, and the economy in the tank, Obama puts together the: Presidents Economic Recovery Board. On that board he appoints several giants across the commerce spectrum; one of them is GE Chairman and CEO Jeffery Immelt. GE is known for many things and being a conglomerate, it is obviously diversified. One of the technologies GE is bullish on is Wind Turbines (read green energy) so it makes sense when you take into account this administrations feverish green outlook. GE is also smart, they havent grown to their size and scope being naive; so they do not take risks that aren’t highly calculated.

So what happens in 2010 is pretty interesting. Remember Jeff Immelt? He cuts a deal with GM to have GE  buy 12,000 Chevy Volts by 2015. This is the same Chevy Volt that there is no demand for, the same vehicle that has serious questions about its reliability and its safety. Yet, one of the richest, most diverse corporations in the world decides to replace half of its fleet with a car that is still much in question? How does Obama show his gratitude, for buying into this boondoggle? He gives Immelt a promotion. One might start to ask themselves, how does a Chairman and CEO of GE…receive a promotion? Simple, President Obama Gave him another chair, and made him Chairman of the: Council on Jobs and Competitiveness on January 21, 2011.

My Congressional representative (3^rd district of PA) Mike Kelly, who is a car dealer himself, had this to say recently about the Volt and Administration:

 

“This is a halo car, not so much for General Motors , but for this administration,” Mr Kelly Said. “If GM thought this was such a good investment, they would have launched it themselves many years ago. If these cars are so great and so marketable, why do we have to subsidize them so heavily?”

 

Here you have a sitting President with a green agenda buying with US taxpayers a stake in an American company GM who sells cars in the US against other US car manufacturers with no federal coffers to dip into. That is the first strike. Then you have said President in a cozy relationship with a CEO of a company like GE (who also has green interest) buying an enormous amount of cars off of GM, who is backed by the federal government. I mean, why not the Ford Fusion Hybrid? They are an American automaker as well and the Fusion Hybrid is actually a better car, according to many industry experts. Strike Two.

Last but not least is ethics. How can a President (who came in loaded with a cabinet of Wall Street insiders) so stuck in a jobs rut side with a company that has been shipping some of its businesses and jobs offshore all the while using tax loopholes to escape paying taxes while using the Volt as another tax win with its tax credits? Or how can we cut joint venture deals with the Chinese to sell the Volt; then to only have the Chinese steal the technology to turn around and use it against us like they have on so many other occasions across multitudes of industry. It’s pretty obvious that the end game is this: GM must succeed for the President to succeed, regardless of how it’s done. The ends justify the means. The government picking and choosing winners, betting on what technology they think is the best option instead of the market place is why Obama strikes out on this matter.   

There have been numerous examples of crony capitalism over the years but we are seeing some pretty alarming examples at the height of our elected representatives over the last decade, and the corruption starts at the doorstep of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. This isn’t a partisan problem; this is a national, state and local problem; as this affects all of us and at every level of our government. If it happens there and is so visible, imagine what we don’t know about? We can call it crony capitalism or call it a plutocracy or a plutarchy but whatever you do; do not call it capitalism and never under these conditions dare call this market free.

In defense of Obama (allow me to explain)

Let me start out by saying, that feels weird uttering out that title to myself. For those that don’t know me... I’m not a liberal, far from it. For those that do, know I would consider myself a Libertarian and Libertarianism is rooted in logic. Freedom across the board seems to be the "fairest" premise one can have in such an unfair game that is politics. With that said, I see a lot of venom spit at the President in terms of his economic approach that I don’t think is quite fair. Again, before you bitch slap your monitor - allow me to explain.

Much has been made recently about the Presidents accumulation debt. We have seen 5 Trillion added onto the 10 Trillion of national debt since he came into office in January 2009, that's no cheap date. So let there be no doubt that the spending is spiraling out of control going forward.  However, the attempt to put this on one man and his quest to outspend any president in history doesn't make him a Marxist as some would like to believe he is; it makes him a loyal solider. First a very crude and broad history.

A curious thing happened during the early 80's... GDP started to escalate as the country found itself in the midst of an economic growth period unlike anything it has seen in decades. One could point to Nixon ending Bretton Woods in the early 70's as a precursor to this expansion but that is another topic for another day. The reality was the country was booming. However, with that came enormous amounts of debt. So much so that the National debt ballooned from 1 Trillion in 1980 to 4 Trillion by 1988; so this explosion of growth came with a price tag (on a credit card).

Even though the debt was piling up as long as the economy kept building and building like it always has, there would be nothing to worry about. So the federal outlays began to climb and so did the deficits. Bill Clinton had his time to shine as being the only president in four decades to pass a balanced budget, although that was much to do because of the tech boom and the validation and explosion of a new business and platform: the Internet. Then the subsequent NASDAQ crash came in 2000, right when the economy was heading into recession.Ouch.

Then something changed. George Bush Jr was elected and began to rapidly increase spending on new entries to the budget like the Prescription drug plan (entitlements or votes) and Homeland Security (not sure what that still does to this day) while cutting taxes in the midst of a recession. Then we added two wars on two separate fronts and before you knew it we had doubled the debt from roughly 5 to 10 trillion in his eight years and oh yhea, the housing bubble bursts bringing on one of the worst financial calamities since the 30's.  And if that wasn't enough, right before his leaving of office the great recession came and wreaked havoc on our economy on all fronts (except for those at the very top) causing us to pass TARP while most taxpayers getting what amounts to a welfare check of 300-1200 Dollars from the Economic Stimulus Act.

Enter the "O" man. Right out of the gate, Mr Obama pushed through a 780+ Billion dollar stimulus bill which had much of the nation in an uproar based on the preconceived notions upon his entering of office. That stimulus act, like George Bush's before him, had large lump of tax credits worth 250 Billion, so it wasn't all spending parse. President Obama's budgets, although record setting high nominally; were in-line with the last budget of President Bush. The subsequent Obama budgets after his first were (and estimated) to be in the 3.5 to 3.7 Trillion dollar range. President Obama therefore is no bigger of a spender than President Bush if you account for the history seen below.

A large part of the deficit spending has to do with the walloping the middle class took as it affected the receipts. The last three years (2009-2011) receipts were roughly 400 billion lower then they were in all three years before (2006-2008). At the same time the outlays keep increasing. This creates tremendous deficits. But, it wasn’t like Obama came in with a blank check. In fact, Obama's first budget had actually less spending than Bush's last year in office. Obama's final budget is actually only 200 billion more than Bush's final budget (and Bush's biggest to be fair). 

So, if President Obama doubles the national debt, he will just be doing his part to continue the legacy that was put in place before him started in the early 80's by Ronald Regan. This is no disrespect to George Bush nor is this some type of vindication for Mr Obama; its simply setting the record straight. If anything, this points to a bigger problem, regardless of who sits in the oval office and its pretty straight forward. We have too many bills and not enough income. How we bridge this gap, will be the most vital national issue of the next decade. Keynesian economics appears to have reached its saturation point. We either slash spending or we dramatically raise taxes... or invent the internet again.

The assault on the constitution continues...

It was 98 years ago that the Federal Reserve Act was passed during Christmas vacation under much scrutiny then as it is today. It was just ten years ago, weeks after 9-11, that the “Patriot Act” was signed into law while the country was in a state of absolute shock. Take another arrow out of the quiver of freedom today as we enter a period of unimaginable potential consequences. NDAA (National Defense Authorization Act) was signed into the books last night as President Obama paves the way for the indefinite detention without charge or trial into law thus eliminating due process of law.
President Obama is on record saying:

“Moreover, I want to clarify that my Administration will not authorize the indefinite military detention without trial of American citizens.”

In other words: I don’t have to do it if I don’t want to but you better know i can and will if it deems necessary. It was the Magna Carter that first contained the workings of due process of law. Then it was stripped out over time by the King of England. You cant help but to think we are entering that threshold of trading liberty for peace. And along the way, the oval office over the last 10 years is starting to resemble a throne. Happy New Year people!