Showing posts with label Unemployment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Unemployment. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Circling The Drain. The death of the American family and its middle class; now two incomes be damned. (Part 2 of 2)

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The second part of the blog entry entitled: How to fix the economy: throw your wife back in the kitchen, barefoot and pregnant is optional



This is the most complicated aspect of working mothers in the workforce and the part that would be considered third-rail politically; the economic impact. I feel to date, this might be the most important topic I have talked about on this blog because it affects all of us on so many levels. I would like to think after reading this you would agree.

The confusing aspect of this, as mentioned in Part 1, is not intertwined in the complexity of the argument. On the contrary, it lies in the simplicity of it; yet it’s not even in the discussion of what ails our economy?

When it comes to children being cared for outside of the home, its hard to find clear cut data that points out positively home is better, thus I’m sure someone could call it subjective. Now it's common sense having one parent home works better but I like to deal in absolutes rather than conjecture. What is totally objective is the impact of working parents (and to a degree women in general) on the economy. This all can be traced back to two words: supply and demand.

Obviously, with any prospering nation, the population has been on the incline since its inception. Thus, there have always been more than enough people looking to work. If we compare our population today (315 Million) to 1960 (180 Million) we can see a 75% increase in population in 53 years. In 1960, there were 69 Million Americans employed. Today, there are 155 million Americans employed. That’s a 125% increase in Americans working today from 1960. If we include real unemployment numbers in one of the worst economic recovery’s in history (said to be about 22 million more Americans) that 125% climbs over 150%.

Adjusted for population and time, we have seen the true workforce expand more than 25% in 53 years. Even with the staggering unemployment, we are seeing 49% of our population in the workforce compared to just 38% in 1960. As we know, women entering the workforce deserve the spotlight here, but with all these added workers, are we getting our money worth?

From almost every statistical standpoint the answer is simple. No. And it doesn’t end there. First, this is what the employment history looks like men versus women over the last 60 years.









As we can see, women have almost doubled their numbers, while men in the workforce have fallen about fifteen percent since 1960. With the influx of all these new workers over time, it’s only natural to expect that a “rising tide lifts all boats” scenario would exist but that just doesn’t seem to be the case. Despite the fact that the US has more billionaires than anywhere else on the globe, despite the fact that the average net worth of the newly elected 113th Congress is 966k; the average American family has been stuck in neutral for 40+ years.

Nothing paints this picture more vividly than what has happened and will continue to happen to the middle class. Like the time you left the bath running too long, low-interest rates/created new money has been filling up the economy. By the time you do notice and go to shut the faucet off, you find the handle is stripped (as there is no end in sight to new money with record low-interest rates). And no matter what you do, we cannot keep up with rising costs (inflation via new money).

You work and work and work some more. Your spouse goes to work; your youngest kids are off to daycare while your teenager competes with those without a high school diploma for jobs. Debt, credit, 2nd job... it doesn’t matter; whatever it takes, you will use any bucket you can find. You throw every bucket you can into that tub to keep it from spilling over, to keep from falling under that median. To keep that American dream still afloat. The fear of being poor is a great motivator. But to no avail.

As we can see below the median income has been relatively unchanged for Americans over the last 40+ years. In fact, today, real household income is LESS than it was in 2000, adjusted for that inflation. Meanwhile, the median income for males in this country is LESS today than it was in 1973. Does this sound like a 'dream' or progress? Women have gained roughly 80% in median income in this span but it's still substantially less than men (there goes that richer sex theory).










The destruction of the middle class is taking place before our very eyes. We have more people getting rich but substantially more getting poorer. I suppose this is “better for everyone” too? And this lunacy isn’t just limited to Time Magazine either. All media seems to be nothing but a mouthpiece for this propaganda. As I said yesterday, we know it’s not better for kids and more specifically the family and as we can clearly see here it’s been no blessing for the overwhelming majority of Americans economies either.









Let’s re-cap. We work long hours. We are flooding the job markets over the last 50 years with record number job seekers, turning upside down our outlook on work and family in our culture in the process. All of this just to keep a foot in the middle class or otherwise known as: ‘living the American dream’. But inflation (read theft) through loose (read suicidal) monetary policy and cost of living has not just made this 'dream' impossible but in turn nothing short of a nightmare.

If this sobering fact of our economy wasn’t enough, we also have the reality that nationally; this situation is even worse. In fact, this is how the banksters and those at the top of the pyramid power structure want it. After all, all this work and no gain by the masses have to go somewhere, right?

It wasn’t until 1982 that we as a nation reached a national debt over 1 Trillion (1,142,034,000,000.00). That took 191 years to reach that numerical milestone. Thirty years later, we have surpassed the 16 trillion dollar ceiling. As I have pointed out before, interest rates are at record lows to finance this gargantuan debt, thus we don’t necessarily have to feel the direct pain associated with such outlandish debt. But that doesn’t indicate there isn’t damage. The public debt side of the national debt has risen 140% since 2007, from 5.1 trillion to 11.9 trillion today. 140% in just six years.








And for all this debt, we know GDP has grown, but really has it?






As we can see, our growth,  like our economy, both micro and macro is nothing but an illusion. A dirty trick, made possible by the complacent yet complicit public. So eager, to be dictated by emotion, so much so that sound logic is actually discouraged and looked down upon. Have you seen the savings rates at your local bank? Check out a CD. You’d make a better investment buying scratch off lottery tickets than let your savings be ravaged by the fractional reserve banking system who rely on ‘kick the can down the road’ politicians who spend more time whoring for re-election than legislating. Or you know… what they were elected for in the first place.


You think it's bad, now? Wait until the FED start's raising rates again (if that's even possible).

This isn’t about women staying home and men working. The reality of men staying home while a woman works is not something that is concerning. What is concerning to me and should be to you is the reality of the American family. How one income is no longer able to support a family (regardless of the sex) and how we have been conditioned to accept this as the norm! As we can see, we are just barely staying afloat with two incomes, in the meantime causing major damage to the fabric of the family structure. What happens 30 years from now?

We are seeing our wealth being vaporized at the expense of our families and our way of life. This leads to only one thing. As “we” Americans continue to be duped, dumped-on and mislead, don’t expect things to change. We are paving our inevitable road that leads into a cul-de-sac of serfdom. I think George Carlin said it best in his last HBO stand-up before his death:


"The reason they call it the American Dream is because you have to be asleep to believe it."


So, wake up America, the wolves are already at the door.

Friday, March 22, 2013

The sky IS FALLING (in graphs)


The NCAA tournament isn’t over yet but we know its coming to an end in exactly 16 days. If I was to tell you it’s not over yet, I would be correct. But does change the fact that is will end? Of course it doesn’t. For many people, because we haven’t seen bread lines or riots in the streets the “sky isn’t falling” yet. Does that change the reality that our economy is on the downside of the bell curve?

When the FED dropped interest rates back in ’07 the idea was that it would incur borrowing from the public & private business; therefore creating new/bigger business and in the process creating jobs or at least not hemorrhaging more than the economy was already in the process of doing. Then the rates kept dropping and dropping and wont go up until the very least 2014 and then what? Go up? The debt will explode in a hyperbolic fashion.

This graph shows we paid MORE in interest on our debt in 2008 (10,024,724,896,912.49) then we did in 2012 (16,066,241,407,385.89). How do you pay LESS interest on six trillion more in principal? There is only one solution; you pay substantial less interest. 


As we know, unemployment has dropped from its high of 10.0% back in ’09 to 7.7% as of last month but at what cost?

GDP has only seen moderate gains during the last five years and in fact, as you can see below, the last quarter actually seen our GDP in decline; despite the fact that private GDP rose in the same period. 


Some people will point to the cuts in defense spending as the main culprit and they would be correct (as defense have seen a 22% drop in spending) but if running nothing short of an empire and that is how we are keeping afloat in the first place, well… 



Mortgage rates are now at their lowest rate in recorded history and this has been a yearly trend these last few years. Only now in March of 2013, are we beginning to see signs of the real estate market coming back to life; despite a plummet in interest rates the last six years that were supposed to (as said in my opening) entice borrowers. Was it worth it?

Was it worth it and at what cost are the two questions I pose to you today. At what cost and is it worth it to live for today at the expense of tomorrow?

The CBO estimates of this nation’s debt keep getting worse, study after study. This is a quite simple process: the interest rates remain low, the debt piles up and the economy barley moves. These projections below are based on current conditions. Remember, zero is the end game; there isn’t much that can be done after that. We are basically at zero interest rates now.  



These examples I gave are just the tip of the iceberg and they are all interconnected. And that iceberg is the general public of this nation being so inundated in debt, so much so that we are getting to the point where offers of basically free money can’t move the needle any longer. These last four years of record low interest rates with barley a crawl until four, five sometimes six years later illustrates this quite luminously.

With wages not keeping up with real inflation (not the phony government statistics) and the globalization of the market, incomes for the average American (an overwhelming majority of) are stagnated; if not in decline. Is there any way that changes? Of course not, this is the new reality.

So to keep up, for most Americans, debt is the only logical solution. Afterall, we know saving via the conventional bank route is futile with rates being under 1%. And as we know debt = money, so when the economy can’t jump start and the FED’s QE programs don’t jump start growth; what else can the FED do? It’s been said by Bernanke that the quick death of deflation will not occur, so that only leaves one alternative; go to zero and close its eyes. Then hold on for limb and life as the decent to a slow death via hyperinflation begins.

The political process here has become a joke. A crooked game ran by self-serving lawyers and career politicians hell bent on seeing who can kick the can down the road the furthest. What was once a calling of statesmen has been replace by a bloodthirsty pack of statists. Republicans blame Democrats for not cutting spending despite having no solution themselves and god-damn you if you want to cut a bloated defense budget! Democrats want to actually ADD to the problem with a monstrosity addition to healthcare. While both “sides” will tell you it’s the other guys fault. Then all the puppets and zombies watching/reading the propaganda will parrot it. You think this is going to change?

At this moment, under these terms we are watching the beginning of the end finally become visible before our very eyes. Americans and their distractions have reached the crescendo. They can no longer afford them. The sky isn’t falling, but our economy is. It’s circling the drain, not as fast as Greece or Spain but its circling nonetheless. So move over American Idol, the freak show isn’t just in your living room its right outside your window. Get ya’ popcorn ready.

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Superficial logic say’s: Obama one of the best we’ve had



It’s been well documented, Obama owns this economy. The DNC Chair Wasserman-Shultz has said as much, VP Joe Biden has also said it and a vast majority of Republicans all say Obama owns the economy as well. With piling, Trillion dollar deficits and unemployment having maintained historic levels for extended periods of time; the economic malaise Obama reigns over, is one that no President can tout.

Remember, Clinton's sign on his desk when he was in the oval office? Contrary to popular belief, it was not: “The filing cabinet is under the desk, Interns” it was actually: “It’s about the economy, stupid”. If it is truly about the economic outlook of this nation; then President Obama is in trouble come November.



Now personally, I believe the sheer size of the US economy is so vast and lumbering, that the President gets too much credit when “his” economy is running on all cylinders just as much he is unfairly ridiculed, when it’s in the toilet. That however, is not the majority of how Americans feel or think thou. If they can’t find work, it must be the Presidents fault. The truth of the matter is that the average American does not have time to research what really are the driving economic factors behind our economy good or bad; so the person sitting in the oval office is seen as a personification of the whole economy.

Now, since we are going to use this embodiment to signal a "nay or ya" regarding the economy, I would like to use this simplistic strategy to point out something that doesn’t get talked about enough.

President Obama is the first President in 20+ years to see our nation’s top export be Fuel. He is also the first President since Harry Truman (1949) to oversee the US being a net exporter of oil-based fuels. The US has imported 11% less crude then it did in 2005. Ten years ago, fuel wasn’t or barley made it in the Top 25 for US exports, but now it stands at #1?




Regardless of how or why, it doesn’t matter. He was the guy in office when this happened, thus he owns this fast break to energy independence. Never mind the new developments and discoveries in shale oil/gas or the fact that Obama inherited the worst economic situation since the Great Depression. Let’s, not let things like mitigating facts get in the way of our thinking. Mr Obama is set to become one of the greatest achievers in modern presidential history in our quest for energy independence and for that he will be looked back on as a rousing success. Its all about perception isn’t it, or is it context?