Friday, December 23, 2011

Republicans Money(ball) problem

Its often said that Ron Paul has no chance to capture the nomination, and its said so much by so many people in all types of media that there is no need to rehash it. We get it. He is too old, too kooky, to outside of the mainstream and his delivery and appearance isn’t presidential enough.

Every time I hear Ron Paul doesn’t have the appearance to become elected President much less elected the Republican nomination I always think of the quote from the book Moneyball. Right before the amateur draft the GM and his scouts are in a room debating players. Oakland A’s GM Billy Bean is squabbling back and forth with a typical player with an older scout, who finally just says the player doesn’t have the body to be a ballplayer.

Frustrated Beane tells his scouts: “ we're not selling jeans here”.

The book Moneyball is a lot like the current GOP. It’s a good ‘ol boy network of establishment brand names vetted by the press and by the power structure that’s calls itself the RNC. It’s the party of Grover Norquist and Karl Rove. It’s the party that panders to big business and social conservatives or basically anyone that will guarantee groups of people who will be pulling Republican levers down come election days. And lest not be confused, it’s not limited to Republicans. The Democrat’s establishment is just as guilty if not more. You see, the Republican establishment only has one network pandering to it.

Appearance is everything. Content is only credible if it is sellable. With that said, you can get people like Romney or Rick Perry to be in the spotlight. Rick Perry, much like Newt Gingrich is a career politician and both are without question RINO’s. Even Perry at one point was an elected Democrat before he “seen the light”, conveniently after he voted for a 5.7 Billion dollar tax increase in the Texas State legislature. But that doesn’t matter. They are egotistical maniacs who will do whatever a focus group tells them to do that make them look favorable in way or another. Perry might not be so much like this, but he has Jesus on his side, so that works too... that’s sellable.

What about Mitt Romney? If there is anyone that is more fallible to waffling, it’s the Mitt. Nobody has been for more after he was against it. Hes a wet dream for the RNC and Fox and whoever else likes a happy meal - Manchurian candidate. He is good looking, articulate, from Big business and has lots of well connected friends. Mitt has always and will continue to be the golden boy of the establishment Republicans and you cant fault them for that. He’s the ideal company man, the good - trusty servant. But he doesn’t serve your interests, he serves their interests.

That’s where this gets interesting. The book Moneyball was based around new versus old ideas. Modern technology versus the naked eye. That’s exactly what is happening in the Republican Party as we speak. We are seeing the old players; the Limbaughs and the Romneys and Bushes and John MCains of the country vehemently oppose the most conservative man not only in congress but in any federal branch of government for that matter. Because it petrifies them, they might not understand it, why they discount him but its simple. Their brand will be toast. They will not be as viable.

Ron Paul wants to put an end to crony capitalism and corporate welfare. He wants to shrink big government. Everything he wants to do is for freedom. That is republicanism at its core. With a limited government why raise taxes or fight endless wars? If you have a limited government how can you attempt to control and govern morality? You can’t. So if government has less control then that means someone has more and they don’t want that. Give the power back to the electorate; after all the work to strip them of that power? Dig in Mr Paul because if these tired, token and cyclical racists’ newsletters from the early 90’s are any indication; you’re going to get the kitchen sink.

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

76 years young: Ron Pauls attracting the youth vote

According to the latest survey by Public Policy Polling, Ron Paul owns the youth vote. Iowans under the age of forty-five are 30% of the time aligned with Mr Paul, his closest competitor? Mitt Romney …with half of that number. How is this so? Its not like Ron Paul gets the media attention of his competitors, in fact before his ascension into first place in Iowa; he was only surpassing Rick Santorum amongst Republican candidates in the MSM in terms of coverage according to a Pew Study conducted earlier this month.

Its been said, he has far and away the best network on the ground in Iowa. He has legions of volunteers willing and able to go door to door and work the phones. He also has money and when you have money and enthusiasm in a political process anything is possible and Mr Pauls rise is a perfect illustration of that.
How is it that a 76 year old “crank” is the favorite to young voters in a state where the young vote is not always taken serious? Why is Mr Paul fairing so poorly with older voters, getting blown out by 31-15 amongst Iowan seniors… when hes a senior himself? And yet he still rises to #1 in in Iowa?

The answer is pretty obvious. Ron Paul is a message that resonates with those that want change. And not the change thats artificial and a product of some consultant poll numbers and pushed through the press like a happy meal. We know the type of change (sic) im talking about. Its just that... talk. No, we are talking real, tangible, drastic change in a desperate time. We have all heard it before and its logical, the older you get the less change you want; I mean that is conservatism at its core, right?

The Millennial’s and the Gen-X see the broken foreign policy, the failed economy and the constant bickering and broken ideas proliferating Washington. They see lawmakers out of step with the electorate, something the tea party and the occupy movement tap into. And they want to do a U-Turn. There isn’t a politician in this country more inclined and eager to do just that then Ron Paul.

Ron Paul may not win the nomination, but as he always has said its about philosophy and content over delivery and appearance. Its about changing the conversation more then it is about winning. With so many young voters jumping into the Ron Paul revolution – that appears the biggest story going forward. Win or lose much like his growing army of young "Paul-bots" his message is only going to grow.

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Blue, white... and red? Is the US on the same path of Greece?


With Greece out on the corner whoring for another bailout and Standard and Poor yesterday lowering Greece’s credit rating to CCC (the lowest in the world) joining Moodys, who dropped Greece two weeks ago… it’s a great time to reflect. Or fittingly enough hold up a mirror to ourselves. Could the mighty US ever be in the same mess the Greeks find themselves in now? They are socialists you say and we’re capitalists, surly that couldn’t happen. Or Could it?


The Greek GDP is 329 Billion (2009). Obviously its not Rwanda. But let’s put that into perspective. The 2009 revenue of Wal-Mart was over 400 Billion. Wal-Marts annual revenue surpassed 174 nations that year. And being Wal Mart is just one company in the US, it gives you a feel for how truly large and powerful we are. So much so, that the US GDP is nearly three times its nearest competitor standing at 14.2 Trillion.


What separates the US from Greece? Sure we collectively output 45X in a year then they do collectively, but our external debt to GDP ratio is 100% on the nose as of tonight’s check. What we have that Greece don’t have is simple. We have a printing press. Our currency is traded throughout the world as the default currency. All we have to do is print our recovery (at the expense of massive inflation of course amongst other undesirables). The Greeks have to rely on a bailout from the European Union or default and declare bankruptcy. In many ways bankruptcy isn’t a bad thing for Greece. Because the sooner they can weed out mal-investment, waste and become more efficient the sooner they can get started in rebuilding. We on the other hand are so disillusioned our reckoning is going to be a lot slower and much much more painful.


So Greece having to default on its debt is one thing, for us to do it… that surly would send a ripple effect throughout the world. And that’s where the conversation truly ends. That’s where you get into raising the debt ceiling. Because after all, its not just the Chinese holding debt, its average Americans too. We can stick it to those red chinamen… but we refuse to and won’t default on Grandma Sherley. I mean, Standard & Poor's may be forced to take away our AAA credit rating, or what basically what amounts to as being a credit card with no limit!


At the current rate, in a few months we will start to default on our debt. The disease of debt and living beyond our means at a national level are over. The diagnosis isn’t going to change. The treatment is the only choice we have. Take the medicine now by choice, or be forced to do it later. And we have two responsible options to do this now and one irresponsible one that will only make things worse.


We can default on our debts and admit to the world and to ourselves that we are living well beyond our means or raise taxes and pay our way. If our 2011 budget deficit is 1.6 Trillion and we have roughly 160 million working Americans, all we will need is 10g per working American to cover this years shortcoming (hows that for stimulating the economy, suck 1.6 trillion out of citizens hands and into the coffers of out of control and out of touch government).


Or we can do what what politicians always are in favor of doing, and that is to let the next guy worry about it and continue to kick the can down the road, raise the debt ceiling, creating an oncoming tsunami at what point could be a country in total chaos. Lets see what kind of chutzpah these elected “leaders” have the rest of this summer. Based on past results, i dont think the shoe business should need a bailout.